Case Study

U.S. Healthcare Company Implements Advanced Forecasting to Optimize Product Licensing

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The Brief

  • Client Profile: A U.S. based healthcare company renowned for its medical devices, diagnostic equipment, branded generic medications, and nutritional supplements.
  • Challenge Faced: The client sought to enhance their ability to predict the success of candidates considered for in-licensing and the associated products. The existing order of entry models developed using historical small molecule sales data did not accurately reflect evolving market dynamics in key global markets of interest.
  • Project Objective: To develop a predictive model that accurately forecasts potential market shares and statistics for prospective products, enabling informed decision-making in future licensing endeavors.

The Solution

We devised a comprehensive plan to address the client's challenges:

  • Historical Data Analysis: Conducted an in-depth analysis of products launched across multiple therapeutic areas over a specified period, utilizing objective, output, and effectiveness-based forecasting approaches.
  • Order of Entry Forecasting Tool: Developed a forecasting tool based on historical IMS patient data to project market share for new products and in-licensing candidates within each therapeutic area.
  • Customized Forecast Model: Created a model enabling the client to refine forecasts based on specific attributes of pipeline products.
  • Automated Dashboard: Implemented an Excel-based dashboard to monitor "New Order of Entry" and "Launched Products Attribute" forecast models, facilitating quick and efficient tracking.

The Outcome

The collaboration yielded significant results:

  • Enhanced Predictive Accuracy: The new forecasting models provided more accurate predictions of market dynamics, improving the client's decision-making process for in-licensing candidates.
  • Timely Delivery: The project was completed within six weeks, demonstrating a combination of accuracy and rapid execution.
  • Client Satisfaction: The client expressed high satisfaction with the precision and efficiency of the delivered solutions, acknowledging the expertise of the research team.

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